Question

Which would not generally be considered a feature common to all forecasts?

1) Actual results will differ somewhat from predicted values
2) Forecasts for groups of items tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individual items
3) Historical data is available on which to base the forecast
4)Accuracy decreases as the time horizon increases.
5)An assumption of a stable underlying causal system.

Answer 1

An assumption of a stable underlying causal system is not generally considered a common feature of all forecasts due to unpredictable factors and dynamic environments that can significantly influence predictions.

Step-by-step explanation:

The option that would not generally be considered a feature common to all forecasts is 'An assumption of a stable underlying causal system.' While forecasts do rely on analytical techniques and historical data, assuming a stable causal system is not always viable due to the dynamic nature of many environments in which forecasts are made. For instance, stock market predictions can be significantly influenced by unpredictable market events and human behavior, leading to shifts in stock prices based on changing expectations rather than consistent historical patterns.

It is true that actual results will usually differ somewhat from predicted values and that accuracy tends to decrease as the time horizon increases. Forecasts for groups of items are indeed typically more accurate than those for individual items due to the aggregation of variances. Additionally, having historical data provides a basis for the forecast, though irregularities in the objects being measured or other situational factors can lead to inaccuracies in predictions.