Winter has come, trees have lost their leaves, and President Joe Biden is disillusioned. For the US, the outlook at the international and domestic levels is bleak: a climate catastrophe with serious consequences, a growing political and military threat from Russia in Europe, and fierce competition from China in the east. At home, the United States faces a serious weakening of its political system.
Hawks in both parties denounced Mr. Biden for compromising on Russia. First, they want Washington to intervene with decisive military aid. Then they were convinced that if the United States threatened military intervention, Mr. Putin would back off. Republicans, however, are not as vocal as they once were, with memories of Mr. Trump's controversial ties to Russia.
After the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, all opinion polls suggest that American society will never support new military interventions abroad that could spiral into serious international conflicts.
Putin is testing the strength and resolve of his American and European rivals. While all possibilities cannot be ruled out, this is not so much a military invasion of Ukraine as an attempt to influence the stability of Kiev's rule.
Mr. Biden's response was twofold: On the one hand, he threatened Russia with the full range of economic and political sanctions at the United States' disposal, even blocking its access to the international financial system. Sanctions will have a severe impact on the Russian economy. The US, on the other hand, will have to find ways to defend Ukraine's independence without outright provoking Russia.
The United States may suspend further arms supplies to Ukraine, but it will not in any way guarantee that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO or the European Union. Perhaps the United States could assuage Russian military concerns by negotiating a new agreement on strategic arms and conventional forces.