Question

Mary tosses a penny 5 times and it lands on heads every time. On the next toss of the penny, is it more likely, less likely, or equally likely to land on tails? Why?

The answer is Equally likely to land on tails. I just need an explanation.

Answer 1

Because there are only 2 sides that makes it 50 50

Answer 2

It is equally likely because there are 2 possible outcomes of flipping the penny- heads or tails. In this situation, the penny’s chances of landing on heads or tails are not increased or decreased in likelihood because the two sides stay the same (unlike if you were to test the likelihood of pulling a red ball out of a bag after pulling 5 green balls out of the bag which would change the possibility ratios.