Question

Dawn tosses a pawn from her chess set five times. It lands on it's base four times and on its side only once.

Andre tosses the same pawn 100 times. It lands on its base 28 times and on its side 72 times. Based on their data, if you toss the pawn one more time, is it more likely to land on its base or its side? Explain.

Answer 1

The pawn toss is an independent event. it has been established during the initial tosses that the pawn lands on its base 4/5 times and it's side 1/5 times. it doesn't matter how many times its been tossed before because the tosses are independent of each other like flipping a coin. The pawn is more likely to land on its BASE.

Answer 2

It is more likely to land on the side.

For every 100 times tossed, it will land on the side 28 times, and 72 times on the side. This can scale to larger numbers, like every 1k times tossed, will land on side 280 times and on base 720 times, etc...