January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December. That's the sample space.
A September, October, November, December festival would compose this event.
Four months have names ending in r, so the probability of the festival occurring in a month ending in "r" is 4/12, or 1/3, or 0.3333....
Neither likely nor unlikely. Were the probability 1/8 or so, then we'd say the likelihood of this event is small; were the probabli 7/8 or so, we'd say it is great, but a probability such as 1/3 is in between.